Europe is no longer in a padel boom. It is in a decision phase.
For five years, growth in many areas was so fast, that it masked the real question: what kind of market is Europe actually building?
According to The Racket Sports Race – Tennis and the Advent of Padel & Pickleball (CAA Portas, Oct 2025), padel now counts:
30M global players (2025)
+100% player growth since 2020
+200% court growth since 2020 (20K → 60K courts)
~60% of players based in Europe
Spain alone has ~16K padel courts versus ~13K tennis courts .
Europe is not a growth outpost. It is the reference market.
FROM SCARCITY TO OVERSUPPLY:
Between 2020 and 2025, the playbook was simple: build courts, fill courts, repeat. Roughly 70% of padel facilities are privately funded , which accelerated rollout across the continent.
But when courts grow 200% in five years, scarcity stops protecting returns. Execution starts to matter more than expansion.
THE NEXT PHASE:
Indoor facilities that reduce seasonality.
Hybrid venues integrating F&B, events and corporate leagues.
Cross-city consolidation creating pricing power.
Data-driven yield management replacing flat hourly pricing.
Whilst some countries in Europe are just starting their race (Germany, Austria), many others (Italy, Sweden, Spain) are shifting from expansion to optimization.
TOO MANY TENNIS COURTS:
One lever remains underexploited in many markets: tennis court conversion.
1 tennis court converts into ~3 padel courts.
Tennis revenue averages ~€75–100 per day.
Converted padel courts average ~€504–576 per day.
That is roughly 5–7x uplift, with ~2-month payback under steady (idealistic?!) utilization assumptions .
Spain has already converted an estimated 15–20% of tennis courts .
Germany, France, Italy, Austria and much of CEE have not.
LOOKING AHEAD:
Padel is projected to reach ~105M players by 2035.
Tennis is forecast at ~130M.
Combined padel and pickleball participation is expected to exceed tennis by 2030 .
Facilities account for roughly half of total market value in emerging racket sports .
Who controls the facilities controls the monetization layer.
But tennis still delivers ~2B global viewers annually through its mature ecosystem . Padel’s spectator product is improving, yet governance fragmentation and limited star diversity constrain media scalability .
If padel remains a participation asset, Europe will generate strong infrastructure returns.
If Europe builds coherent tours, narratives and media value, it builds something far larger.
The courts are already there.
The next five years will decide whether Europe builds a category — or simply rents space by the hour.
(Originally published on LinkedIn)
