I keep seeing more ads like this one in my feed: “Investor round now open. 20–36% ROI. 3–4 year payback. Padel. Bali.”
It raises a question I’m asked more and more often:
How safe are padel investments outside your home country (or even within your own region) – and how realistic are the numbers being shown?
First, some context.
Padel is one of the fastest-growing sports globally. Participation, court demand and private investment have all surged, especially in emerging markets. That growth is real, and it explains why international projects are attracting attention from overseas investors.
But growth does not automatically equal a safe investment.
Let’s look at claims like these more critically:
• $155k for 1% equity implies a ~$15.5m valuation. Reasonable only if land security, permitting, brand strength, utilisation rates and exit scenarios justify it.
• 20–36% ROI is achievable in very specific circumstances — usually where land costs are controlled, demand is already proven, and operations are professionally run. It is not a “default” padel return.
• 3–4 year payback assumes optimistic utilisation, stable pricing, minimal disruption, and no regulatory surprises — assumptions that deserve stress-testing, especially in overseas jurisdictions.
None of these figures are impossible.
But none of them should be taken at face value either.
Common red flags I see in international padel deals:
• Returns shown without sensitivity analysis (best-case only).
• No clarity on land ownership vs lease terms.
• Heavy reliance on tourism rather than repeat local players.
• Limited detail on operating experience after the build phase.
• Governance, shareholder rights, and exit options glossed over.
What actually makes an overseas padel project a “safer bet”?
• Verified local demand (not just participation hype).
• Conservative utilisation and pricing assumptions.
• Transparent legal structures and investor protections.
• Operators with a proven track record in that market.
• A plan for year-round revenue, not just peak seasons.
Padel is an exciting asset class — but it is still sport + real estate + operations, layered with jurisdiction risk when you invest abroad.
That’s where most investors go wrong: they fall in love with the sport and forget the fundamentals.
This is exactly the type of due diligence work I spend my time on — helping investors separate credible opportunities from well-marketed optimism, and pressure-testing projects before capital is committed.
If you’re looking at padel investments internationally and want an independent, experience-based view before you move forward, I’m always happy to have a quiet, no-obligation conversation.
Growth is exciting.
Clarity is profitable.
(Originally published on LinkedIn)
