Padel doesn’t die from lack of interest. It dies from over-exuberance.
I recently saw a post on Instagram claiming a Padel crash in Sweden and thought it worth a deeper dive.
1. Was there really a crash — and what caused it?
Yes. But not because people stopped playing.
Between 2018 and 2022, Sweden exploded from roughly 400 courts to more than 6,000, giving it the world’s highest courts-per-capita ratio. The problem was speed, not the sport.
Pandemic-fuelled demand created a false sense of endless growth. Investors rushed in, often without experience running sports facilities. Towns suddenly had 300% more indoor courts within 18 months. Many halls were identical, undifferentiated, and built on optimistic forecasts.
Once life normalised and the novelty faded, utilisation dropped below 25% in many locations—far below the 45%+ needed to break even in Sweden’s high-rent, high-energy environment. Bookings collapsed. Costs didn’t. Courts were dismantled and operators folded.
This was not a cultural rejection of Padel—it was a classic oversupply correction.
2. Why the DACH region is entering the same danger zone
Germany, Austria, and Switzerland are now where Sweden was in 2019.
• Germany has grown from under 100 courts in 2019 to 1,500+ today, with hundreds more coming.
• Austria has posted triple-digit annual growth since 2021.
• Switzerland is accelerating too.
The demand is real…. however, I think the risk is assuming it will stay exponential.
3. How to avoid repeating Sweden’s mistakes
Sustainability will favour operators who build brand, consistency, and trust—not just courts.
When a country discovers burgers, independent burger joints appear everywhere. But once the novelty fades, people gravitate towards McDonald’s because it’s recognisable, reliable, and efficient.
I believe that Padel will behave exactly the same way.
Chains with strong identity, unified systems, coaching programmes, leagues, and memberships will survive saturation. They can spread marketing costs, negotiate better pricing, optimise operations, and deliver consistent customer experience—advantages independents can’t match.
In Sweden, the facilities still thriving today are the early movers who built brand and community, not the one-off halls.
4. The blueprint for DACH success
To avoid a crash, the region needs:
• Measured, evidence-based growth
• Professional operations, not hobby projects
• Programming first: coaching, ladders, leagues, juniors, corporate events
• Brand-building chains that anchor the market
• Data-driven investment, not speculative construction
Padel is not collapsing. Poorly planned Padel is.
If the DACH region applies Sweden’s lessons early, it won’t just avoid a crash—it will build a sustainable Padel ecosystem worthy of its potential.
(Originally published on LinkedIn)