Padel keeps inching closer to the Olympics… but I have to ask: if the IOC had to choose today, would they pick padel — or pickleball?
The image below (credit to the excellent quick-read weekly Substack newsletter El Remate by Aris Sevastianos) shows another milestone: padel confirmed as a medal sport for the 2027 European Games, just weeks after its inclusion in the Asian Games. This is exactly the kind of box-ticking the IOC likes to see.
And yet, I feel like I’m watching two completely different futures for racket sports.
In Europe, padel looks like the obvious Olympic candidate.
In the U.S., pickleball looks unstoppable.
So which one is actually more Olympic-ready today?
From a governance standpoint, padel is clearly ahead.
The International Padel Federation has more than 80 national members, the sport was already included in the 2023 European Games, and its international structure is relatively unified — all key criteria for Olympic recognition. Pickleball, by contrast, is still fragmented, with multiple federations and competing tours, which is one of the biggest red flags for the IOC.
From a global participation standpoint, the picture is more complicated.
Padel has roughly 30 million players worldwide, heavily concentrated in Europe and Latin America, while pickleball has around 24 million — but with explosive growth, especially in North America, where it has been the fastest-growing sport for several consecutive years.
The Olympic movement historically prefers sports with global spread rather than regional dominance… which helps padel today, but could help pickleball tomorrow if Asia follows the U.S. trend – and it shows signs that it is doing exactly that.
Where I personally see the biggest difference is infrastructure and economics.
Padel expansion has largely been driven by private investment, premium clubs, and commercial facilities whilst Pickleball expansion has been driven by public courts, schools, parks, and community centers.
That sounds like a small detail, but it matters because Olympic sports usually scale through federations, schools, and public systems — not just private clubs.
So, whilst I would lean, slightly, toward padel being more Olympic-ready right now, I would not be surprised at all if pickleball ends up having the bigger global participation in 10–15 years.
If Brisbane 2032 had to decide today, my bet would still be padel.
Ask again in 2030, and the answer might be different.
(Originally published on LinkedIn)
